APRIL 6, 2021
POLICY BRIEF
The Stimulus Gap: 2.2 Million Californians Could Miss
$5.7 Billion in Federal Stimulus Payments
ELSA AUGUSTINE, CHARLES DAVIS, AND APARNA RAMESH
Summary: In March 2021, Congress passed the American Rescue Plan, which included a third round of
pandemic-related stimulus that delivered cash aid rapidly to low- and middle-income Americans. However,
we estimate that approximately 2.2 million eligible Californians are caught in the federal Stimulus Gap:
they likely did not receive these or prior stimulus payments automatically and may be in danger of not
receiving them at all. These Californians may need to take an extra step to claim their payments by either
ling a tax return or using the currently dormant IRS Non-Filers Tool to obtain stimulus payments.
We estimate these Californians are at-risk of missing out on $5.7 billion.
Recommendations: The May tax deadline is fast approaching. In the immediate term the IRS should
simplify the process of receiving stimulus payments by relaunching their online Non-Filers Tool to allow
households to claim their payments without ling a full tax return. While the Treasury Department has
committed to relaunching a similar tool, the Non-Filers Tool has been unavailable since November 2020.
We also recommend the IRS explore enhancing the tool to also allow non-lers to claim other anti-
poverty tax credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit. The IRS should also
coordinate closely with state and local human-services agencies to conduct targeted outreach to their
enrollees most at-risk of missing stimulus payments. Congress should also explore ways to provide
unclaimed stimulus dollars directly to states, allowing states to distribute stimulus dollars to eligible non-
lers enrolled in safety-net programs.
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In response to the COVID-19 economic crisis, Congress
passed three rounds of legislation providing stimulus
payments that deliver cash aid directly to American families.
These payments represent a signicant nancial boost for
low-income households. When stimulus payments (also
known as Economic Impact Payments) from all legislation are
combined, most eligible adults could receive a total of $3,200
each (see Table 1). Adults with dependents under the age of
17 in qualifying households could receive an additional $2,500
per dependent. For example, a single parent with one child
making $15,000 could receive $5,700 in stimulus payments,
representing an almost 40% increase in their annual income.
TABLE 1: Three rounds of stimulus payments
The distribution mechanism for these payments — the tax
system — enabled quick and ecient payment for many
households. Within ve days of Congress passing the third
stimulus bill, the IRS disbursed $242 billion to 90 million
American households. For the rst round of stimulus, the
IRS used 2018 or 2019 federal tax returns to determine
which families were eligible for stimulus payments and sent
direct deposit payments, checks, or debit cards to those
households. For the second round of stimulus, the IRS used
2019 federal tax returns to automate payments. For the third
round, the IRS is using 2019 or 2020 returns. Households
receiving Social Security (OASDI) benets, Supplemental
ROUND OF
STIMULUS LEGISLATION
WHO IS ELIGIBLE FOR
FULL PAYMENT
WHO RECEIVED
AUTO-PAYMENTS
AMT PER
ADULT
AMT PER
DEPENDENT
April 2020 Coronavirus
Aid, Relief,
and Economic
Security
(CARES) Act
Adjusted gross income below:
- Single: $75,000
- Head of Household:
$112,500
- Married, ling jointly:
$150,000
All family members must have
Social Security Number (SSN).
Dependents must be under
age of 17.
Tax Year 2018 and 2019
return lers
Social Security/Veteran’s
Aairs/Railroad
Retirement beneciaries
$1,200 $500
Dec. 2020 Coronavirus
Response
and Relief
Supplemental
Appropriations
Act
Above plus certain mixed-
immigration status households
Tax Year 2019 return
lers
Social Security/Veteran’s
Aairs/Railroad
Retirement beneciaries
$600 $600
March 2021 American
Rescue Plan
Act
Above plus all dependents
(regardless of age and whether
parents have valid SSN)
Tax Year 2019 and Tax
Year 2020 return lers
(who led before ocial
March payment date)
Social Security/Veteran’s
Aairs/Railroad
Retirement beneciaries
$1,400 $1,400
Total stimulus $3,200 $2,500
Distributing stimulus payments through the tax system got aid to many Americans
fast, but also created a federal Stimulus Gap among low-income Americans.
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Security Income (SSI), and compensation/pensions from
Veteran’s Benets also received payments automatically for
the rst two rounds of payments, and will for the third as
well.
Though fast, the strategy of using the tax system for
distribution overlooks a segment of Americans most in
need of this economic relief: households that have little or
no earned income and are therefore not required to le
taxes. These households did not automatically receive all
the stimulus payments they were eligible for, landing them
in what we call the federal Stimulus Gap (referred to as the
Stimulus Gap hereafter). These low-income Americans likely
have to take additional steps to receive these payments.
This brief describes the characteristics of Californians who
are enrolled in safety-net programs and are caught in the
Stimulus Gap.
The Stimulus Gap in California includes any household
enrolled in safety-net programs who did not automatically
receive each of the stimulus payments for which they were
eligible and are therefore at risk of not receiving that payment
at all. We measure the Stimulus Gap using anonymized state
human-services enrollment records (February 2018–July
2020) linked to tax data showing who led a California state
tax return in TY 2018 or 2019 (current as of August 2020).
Our analysis starts with all Californians enrolled in safety-
net programs administered by the California Department of
Social Services: including but not limited to food stamps (the
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, SNAP) and cash
aid (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, TANF).
We refer to these individuals as “safety-net enrollees”
throughout the brief, though it is important to note that
not all safety-net programs, such as Medicaid, are included
in that denition. Due to the income-eligibility rules of these
programs, nearly every one of these enrollees is eligible for
stimulus payments.
To determine who is caught in the Stimulus Gap, we
rst determine who is likely not in the Gap. This includes
individuals who likely received all of the automatic payments
for which they were eligible because: (1) they led a state
tax return in 2019, (2) they are 65 years and older (and likely
receiving Social Security benets), or (3) they are enrolled
in SSI/State Supplementary Payment (SSP) or disability
insurance (SSDI). The Stimulus Gap also includes safety-net
enrollees who led a state tax return in 2018, but did not
le a 2019 state tax return. This is because the IRS used
2018 tax returns only to deliver the rst round of stimulus
payments. See the appendix for more information on our
methodology.
Twenty-ve percent of Californians
enrolled in safety-net programs —
2.2 million people — are caught in the
Stimulus Gap.
The IRS was able to get payments out fast to most safety-net
enrollees in California — but in its speed, we estimate that
25% of California’s safety-net enrollees did not automatically
receive all payments for which they were eligible. Across all
three rounds of the stimulus, roughly 6.6 million Californians
enrolled in safety-net programs automatically received (or
will soon receive) an estimated $18 billion in automatic
stimulus (see gray bars in Figure 1). The data show that 58%
of stimulus-eligible Californians (5.2 million) participating in
safety-net programs from February 2018 through July 2020
appeared on a 2019 California state tax return as of August
2020 and therefore this group received all stimulus payments
automatically. An additional 17% (1.5 million) were likely
issued automatic payments because they are old enough to
receive Social Security or from receiving SSI or SSDI.
However, we estimate that 25% of safety-net enrollees,
some 2.2 million Californians, are caught in the Stimulus Gap
and may miss out on approximately $5.7 billion in stimulus
payments. We estimate that 1.4 million of these Californians
may miss out on all three rounds of stimulus. An additional
424,000 led their 2018 but not 2019 taxes and so may miss
out on the second and third rounds. Finally, another 360,000
dependents may miss out on the third round of stimulus,
which broadened eligibility to all dependents. To receive their
money, these Californians have to take an additional step to
notify the IRS that they are eligible. If they did not use the
Non-Filers Tool before it was taken down in November 2020,
their only option now is to le a federal tax return.
Though our estimates of the overall Stimulus Gap in
California are the most detailed to date, they are still
imperfect because we cannot account for two key groups of
eligible households. One group would potentially decrease
our estimate of the Stimulus Gap and the other would
potentially increase our estimate of the Gap. First, we cannot
identify which people in our analysis population led only
a federal, and not a state, tax return. This group received
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payments automatically and probably comprises around
750,000 eligible people, which would lower our estimates
of the Stimulus Gap accordingly. Some, but not all, of those
Californians are presumably enrolled in SNAP or TANF.
Second, our analysis population does not include Medicaid
enrollees who are not also enrolled in SNAP or TANF.
We estimate this group comprises approximately 6 million
people, some of whom likely did not receive automatic
payments. If we had data on this group, all our aggregate
estimates would likely increase, including the number and
dollar amount of the Stimulus Gap. On balance, we think
our overall estimate of the Stimulus Gap is a lower bound
because the number of eligible Medicaid-only enrollees who
did not receive automatic payments is likely larger than the
number of safety-net enrollees that led only federal taxes.
See the appendix for more detail.
Who is in the Stimulus Gap in California?
Two-thirds of adults in the Stimulus Gap, around
880,000 people, are single and without dependents.
Most of these adults do not have any wage earnings. These
individuals had little incentive or need to le their taxes prior to
the pandemic, but are now eligible for $2,000 to $3,200 in aid.
This should concern policymakers because it exacerbates the
problem of single adults without dependents (especially those
without earned income) being left behind by safety-net programs.
The Stimulus Gap includes 360,000 dependents
who became eligible to receive the third stimulus
payment because of provisions in the March 2021
bill. That bill expanded eligibility to include dependents ages
17 and older and children (with Social Security Numbers)
of undocumented parents. However, if a parent or guardian
does not have an Individual Taxpayer Identication Number
(ITIN) to le a return, they may need to take the extra
step of applying for an ITIN — a process that can take an
additional two months.
Safety-net enrollees identied as Native American
or Alaskan Native in the enrollment data appear to
be at the highest risk for being in the Stimulus Gap.
Among that group, 37% likely did not receive an automatic
payment. In contrast, only 11% of eligible individuals identied
as Asian in the data are caught in the Stimulus Gap. Around
30% of eligible individuals identied in the data as Black,
White, and Hawaiian or Other Pacic Islander are in the
Stimulus Gap, as are 24% of eligible individuals identied in
the data as Hispanic.
Safety-net enrollees in rural Northern and Eastern
counties are more likely to be in the Stimulus Gap
than residents of other counties in California.
For example, 33% percent of eligible safety-net enrollees
who are residents of the North Coast economic area
(Trinity, Humboldt, and Del Norte counties) are at risk of not
receiving payments automatically. This interactive county map
shows how many people are in the Gap in each county.
FIGURE 1: 25% of eligible California safety-net enrollees are in the Stimulus Gap
Source: Franchise Tax Board Tax Year 2018 and 2019 data (indicator of tax ling only), Medi-Cal Eligibility Data System les from February 2018 through July 2020.
Note: Due to rounding, percentages and numbers may not total.
8.8 million safety-net enrollees eligible for stimulus payments
1.5 million on OASDI/SSI/SSDI
and received auto-payments
2.2 million eligible but
will not get all auto-payments
1.4 million missing
all
auto-payments
424k missing
last two
auto-payments
360k missing
last
auto-payment
5.2 million led 2019 taxes
and received auto-payments for which they were eligible
17%
58%
100%
25%
STIMULUS GAP
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The IRS Non-Filers Tool is an essential,
but incomplete, way to address the
Stimulus Gap.
From April through November 2020, the IRS website
featured a tool to help low-income Americans receive their
stimulus payments even though they were not required to
le taxes. Single lers with income under $12,200 and those
married ling jointly under $24,400 could use this tool to
claim their stimulus payment and bypass the complexities of
tax ling.
This tool was largely successful. By October 2020 over 8.1
million households nationally had used it. The IRS has not
published detailed information on who used the tool, so we
do not know how many were Californians or how many
submissions were accepted. However, it is clear that the tool
provided a crucial mechanism for households to avoid being
caught in the Stimulus Gap.
Despite the tool’s success, many families who are eligible for
the stimulus still have not yet received it. In January 2021, the
Treasury Department estimated that 8 million households
nationally had not yet been able to get their stimulus
payments. That number is roughly equal to the number that
used the Non-Filers Tool, which suggests that 50% of eligible
households used the Non-Filers Tool.
We can apply this 50% take-up rate of the Non-Filers Tool
to the Stimulus Gap in California, but we rst have to
subtract 780,000 Californians who are at-risk of missing only
the second or third rounds of stimulus payments. These
individuals were unable to use the Non-Filers Tool because
the second and third rounds of stimulus passed after the
tool had closed. Even if half of the remaining 1.4 million
Californians (around 700,000) in the Stimulus Gap had used
the Non-Filers Tool, that would still leave around 1.5 million
Californians who could potentially miss out on $3.5 billion in
stimulus payments. In Table A1 in the appendix, we apply a
more complex set of assumptions and come to roughly the
same estimate. To help federal and state policymakers track
progress in closing the Stimulus Gap, the IRS should release
detailed estimates of Non-Filers Tool use by state to date.
Beyond the stimulus: using the tax
system to distribute benets leaves a
perpetual gap.
Over one million Californians in the Stimulus Gap
may be eligible for other anti-poverty tax credits,
such as the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and
the expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC).
Approximately 560,000 adults in the Stimulus Gap are likely
eligible for the federal EITC, because they have wage earnings.
The March 2021 bill expanded the federal EITC for childless
workers, and is now worth up to $1,500. In addition, 650,000
dependents in the Stimulus Gap may be eligible for the newly
refundable CTC in 2021, worth up to $3,600. In forthcoming
work, we will provide robust estimates of who is at highest
risk of missing out on these credits. The IRS should revive its
tool to allow non-lers to claim their stimulus payments and
also consider allowing non-lers to claim these other anti-
poverty tax credits through that tool.
Coordinating through safety-net programs can
be an eective way to close the Stimulus Gap,
and focusing on SNAP recipients in the Gap is a
promising place to start. At least 2 million Californians
who we estimate did not receive automatic payments were
enrolled in SNAP at some point between 2018 and 2020.
Targeting eorts, such as outreach or even providing direct
tax ling assistance, for example to SNAP recipients, could
help the IRS meet Congress’ goal of getting stimulus out to
the families who have been most impacted by the COVID-19
economic downturn.
Recommendations
The IRS should make it as easy as possible for low-income
Americans to claim the stimulus and anti-poverty tax credits.
Our past work nds that simple, low-touch outreach is
unlikely to spur tax ling. Filing a full tax return is complex
in ordinary times. Finding convenient ways to do so is
even more dicult during the pandemic, in part because
in-person preparers (including the Volunteer Income Tax
Assistance program) are not operating at full capacity.
The current administration has signaled steps toward
simplication but can and should do more. In January 2021,
President Biden signed an executive order directing the IRS
to reopen its online Non-Filers Tool for and to focus on
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outreach to underserved households. While the Treasury
Department committed to relaunching the tool, it has
remained unavailable since November 2020.
We recommend the following additional actions:
(1) Reinstate the IRS Non-Filers Tool as soon as
possible — with modications
In the immediate term, the IRS should simplify the
process of receiving stimulus payments as much as
possible, including by reinstating its online Non-Filers Tool,
alongside easy options for Americans without internet
access to claim payments.
In addition, the IRS should incorporate important lessons
learned in the 2020 iteration of its tool. For example, it
should ensure that using the Non-Filers Tool does not
preclude or delay claiming the EITC or other anti-
poverty tax credits.
(2) Enhance the Non-Filers Tool to facilitate
claiming of other anti-poverty tax credits
The previous Non-Filers Tool was targeted at stimulus
payments, but with some alterations it could also be
used for households to claim the newly refundable CTC,
which has fairly simple eligibility rules, especially for those
under the non-ler income threshold. For more complex
credits, such as the EITC, the IRS should explore whether
the Non-Filers Tool, supported by administrative data,
could be used to simplify claiming credits. These valuable
tax credits are worth thousands of dollars in 2021 and
are designed to pull children and low-wage earners out of
poverty. Future policy briefs will cover how administrative
data could also be used to accomplish this.
(3) Congress and California should devote
additional funding to safety-net outreach
Congress should direct additional dollars to state
human-services agencies to conduct outreach targeted
at eligible households in the Stimulus Gap. In California,
the state legislature should also allow state and county
human-services departments to conduct direct outreach
to program participants in the Stimulus Gap regarding
stimulus payments and other anti-poverty tax credits.
Those departments should send text messages and
letters to households containing a link to the online
Non-Filers Tool and nd ways to incorporate claiming
stimulus payments as part of existing interaction points.
For households in the Stimulus Gap with a tax ling
obligation, departments should provide information on
free resources to assist with ling a full tax return, such
as Code for America’s GetYourRefund.org.
(4) Develop auto-payment infrastructure for all
safety-net enrollees
The Gap identied in this brief will continue to exist
as long as valuable benets are distributed solely
through the tax system. For the millions of low-income
Americans who do not le taxes, we need to make
it just as easy to distribute and receive funds through
the existing safety-net system. For future payments,
Congress should consider appropriating money to state
human-services agencies to provide automatic payments
directly to their non-ling enrollees, allowing money to
ow faster to families most in need during economic
downturns. To make this work, the IRS could allow,
through a secure portal, state human-services agencies
to check whether their program enrollees were issued
a payment without necessitating the exchange of data
between parties.
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Acknowledgments
We are very grateful to our ongoing partnership with the
California Department of Social Services and the California
Franchise Tax Board, the sta at each organization who
helped with this research, and for their commitment to
informing policy through rigorous research.
The ndings reported herein were performed with the
permission of the California Department of Social Services
and the California Franchise Tax Board. The opinions and
conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the authors
and should not be considered as representing the policy of
the collaborating department, agency or any department or
agency of the California government.
We thank Arnold Ventures, the University of California
Oce of the President Multicampus Research Programs
and Initiatives, MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278, The James
Irvine Foundation, Tipping Point Community, and the Bylo
Chacon Foundation for their generous support. Support for
this research was provided in part by University of Wisconsin
Institute for Research on Poverty, the National Institute on
Aging, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s Policies
for Action program. The views expressed here do not
necessarily reect the views of the Robert Wood Johnson
Foundation. All errors should be attributed to the authors.
Technical Appendix
Methodology: The California Policy Lab linked an indicator
of whether a Californian led a Tax Year (TY) 2018 or
2019 state tax return (or was claimed as a dependent on
a tax return) with enrollment data and quarterly earnings
data from the California Department of Social Services
(CDSS). Data from the Franchise Tax Board (FTB) was
through August 2020, and captures tax ling through the
extended July 15th, 2020 tax ling deadline for TY 2019.
The December 2020 legislation broadened eligibility to
include household members with valid SSNs in mixed-status
households (where at least one head ler or spouse has a
valid SSN) — making them eligible for all rounds of stimulus.
The March 2021 legislation broadened eligibility to include
all dependents with a valid SSN, regardless of whether their
parents have SSNs. Due to these expansions, virtually all
CDSS program participants are eligible for payments. All data
were anonymized before CPL began its analysis.
We count any individual enrolled in a CDSS program from
February 2018 through July 2020 and who appears on a
TY 2019 tax return as having received all three rounds of
their stimulus payments automatically. We count any CDSS
program participant who appeared on a TY 2018 return
but not a TY 2019 return as part of the Stimulus Gap: this
is because the IRS only delivered the rst round of stimulus
payments automatically using TY 2018 returns — the second
two rounds of stimulus payments relied on TY 2019 and/or
2020 returns. In our totals of who has received an automatic
payment to date, we count these individuals as having
received the rst round of stimulus automatically. We assume
that any CDSS program participants aged 65 years or older
by 2020 likely received an automatic payment through Social
Security. We also conservatively assume that any program
participants who appear in a case where at least one member
is indicated as receiving Supplemental Security Income/State
Supplementary Payment (SSI/SSP) or Social Security Disability
Insurance (SSDI) likely received an automatic payment. We
use aid codes in the CDSS data, which denote reasons why
an applicant was approved for Medi-Cal, as a proxy for
whether a member of the household is on SSI/SSP or SSDI.
Codes we use as a proxy either specify SSI/SSP receipt or
denote a disability. Using this proxy, the volume of individuals
we ag as receiving SSI/SSP is comparable to caseload levels
reported by CDSS. We also conservatively assume that any
individual who is 17 or 18 years old on a case with more
than one person was ineligible for the rst two rounds
of stimulus. We are unable to observe who is a veteran
and who may have received automatic payments through
Veteran’s Aairs (although estimates indicate that roughly
94,000 veterans in California receive SNAP in California).
CDSS programs: Our sample includes enrollment data
across all safety-net programs administered by CDSS. CDSS’s
two largest social safety-net programs are CalFresh (SNAP)
and CalWORKs (TANF). Other safety-net programs under
the oversight of the CDSS include the SSI/SSP, the In-Home
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Supportive Services (IHSS) Program, Adoption Assistance
Program (AAP)/Aid Adoption of Children (AAC), Approved
Relative Caregiver (ARC) program, Cash Assistance Program
for Immigrants-Qualied (CAPI-Qualied) Aliens, Entrant
Cash Assistance (ECA), Foster Care, Former Foster, KinGAP
Cash Assistance, and Refugee Cash Assistance (RCA), and
the Tracking and Crime Victims Assistance Program
(TCVAP).
Comparing to other estimates: Our estimates of the
number of individuals who receive SNAP in California and
are in the Stimulus Gap are higher than those released by the
Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, which estimated in
October 2020 that 1.1 million Californians enrolled in SNAP
or Medicaid are non-lers. Our estimates likely dier because
we use more granular administrative data, eligibility rules
changed in subsequent legislation, we account for households
who only led taxes in 2018, and we capture enrollments
through the rst ve months of the pandemic — when
SNAP enrollments in California reached their highest-levels
ever. Additionally, the IRS estimates that as of October
2020, 1.1 million Californians with earned income did not
receive their stimulus payments. The gures from the IRS
use W-2s and 1099s and thus do not include Californians
without earned income — who make up a signicant part of
our Stimulus Gap estimates. The IRS also estimates that as of
January 2021, after the Non-Filers Tool closed, approximately
8 million households in America had not received their
stimulus payment. Assuming that 11–12% of those individuals
live in California (roughly the percent of Americans who live
below 100–200% of the federal poverty level in California),
that leaves at least 1 million California households who have
yet to receive any payments. Note that the IRS estimates do
not include dependents who are newly eligible for the third
round of stimulus — which we estimate to be an additional
360,000 among safety-net enrollees.
Estimating the number of CDSS program enrollees
who used the IRS Non-Filers Tool. We use IRS-
provided numbers for our assumption that 50% of those
in the Stimulus Gap used the IRS Non-Filers Tool. Shortly
before decommissioning the tool, the IRS reported that 8.1
million households had used it. In January 2021, the Treasury
Department noted that 8 million additional households were
eligible but had not claimed stimulus payments. This suggests
that roughly half of Americans who did not automatically
receive their stimulus payments used the Non-Filers Tool.
We arrived at similar estimates using a more complex
calculation (see Table A1). We start with the IRS report of
8.1 million returns submitted through the Non-Filers Tool.
We assume these returns represent 11.3 million individuals,
given that the average case size among households in the
Stimulus Gap while the Non-Filers Tool was open was
around 1.4 individuals. We use the proportion of Californians
in the U.S., the proportion of Americans around the
federal poverty level (FPL) and 200% of the FPL who live
in California, and the percent of households nationally who
claimed the EITC in California last year to generate a range
of estimates of the number of Californians who used the
tool. These estimates range from 11–12%. We assume
that not all Californians who used the Non-Filers Tool are
CDSS enrollees, but that all users of the Non-Filers Tool are
enrolled in Medicaid. This is a conservative assumption: it is
likely that some Californians who used the Non-Filers Tool
are enrolled in no safety-net programs, which would increase
our Gap estimates. Total CDSS enrollment numbers from
August 2019–July 2020 represent roughly 54% of Medi-Cal
enrollments in July 2020. In Table A1, we use an adjustment
to assume that approximately 54% of the California volume
of IRS Non-Filers Tool use came from CDSS enrollees.
We also keep constant the 357,075 dependents eligible for
the latest round of stimulus payments, since they did not
have the opportunity to use the Non-Filers Tool, as well as
the 424,150 TY 2018-only Filers.
How federal-only returns impact our estimates
The nal column of Table A1 adjusts for the share of
Californians in the Stimulus Gap who may have led only a
federal tax return, in addition to adjusting for use of the IRS
Non-Filers Tool, and therefore do not appear in the state
tax data. When we compare the volume of TY 2018 federal
returns the IRS received from Californians with the volume of
TY 2018 state returns in the FTB data used for this analysis
(among returns with a positive AGI under $25,000), we
estimate that the IRS received an additional 525,102 returns,
covering 747,358 Californians. The proportion of federal-only
returns in California belonging to those enrolled in CDSS
programs is unknown, but we apply the same Medicaid
adjustments we used to adjust the Non-Filers Tool volume.
While these adjustments impact the volume and magnitude
of the issue, we do not believe these returns will greatly
impact the breakdowns of the Stimulus Gap by program,
race/ethnicity, language, or geography.
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TABLE A1: Federal Stimulus Gap among California safety-net enrollees, adjusted for Non-Filers Tool use, under ve dierent assumptions
Our estimates do not capture the full federal
Stimulus Gap in California. There are potentially eligible
individuals who do not receive SNAP, TANF, or other
benets administered by CDSS but who do receive other
government assistance and fall in the federal Stimulus Gap.
For example, our analysis does not include Californians who
are enrolled in Medicaid (known in California as Medi-Cal,
California’s largest safety-net program) but not enrolled in
SNAP or TANF. Income eligibility rules for Medicaid mean
that almost all enrollees will be eligible for the stimulus, so
there is likely a larger pool of eligible Californians at-risk of
not receiving an automatic stimulus payment. For example,
in July 2020, there were 13 million Californians enrolled
in Medicaid, compared with 7 million enrolled in CDSS
programs from August 2019 through July 2020. If the
proportion of Medicaid enrollees in the federal Stimulus Gap
is the same as in the CDSS data, there could be an additional
1 million Californians in the Stimulus Gap. Matching Medicaid
data with tax data would provide a more comprehensive
overview of the magnitude of who may not have received
their stimulus payments to date in California.
ASSUMPTION:
% IN (A) IS EQUIVALENT
TO:
(A) CALIFORNIA
SHARE OF
RETURNS FILED
THROUGH THE
NON-FILERS TOOL
(B) CALIFORNIANS
WHO USED NON-
FILERS TOOL:
(A)
*
11.3 MILLION
(EST. # OF
CALIFORNIANS WHO
USED TOOL)
(C) CDSS
PROGRAM
ENROLLEES
WHO USED
TOOL:
(B)
*
54%
*
(D) # WHO DID
NOT RECEIVE
ANY STIMULUS
PAYMENT:
2.2 MILLION
(STIMULUS GAP)
- (C)
(E) % TAKE-UP
OF TOOL:
(C) / (CALIFORNIANS
WHO MISSED
1ST ROUND OF
PAYMENT)
**
(F) $ MISSED-
ADJUSTED FOR
NON-FILERS
TOOL USE
(G) $ MISSED-
ADJUSTED FOR
FEDERAL-ONLY
RETURNS AND
NON-FILERS
TOOL USE
***
Percent of US
population in CA
12% 1,360,800 737,026 1,471,405 52% $3,442,942,133 $2,202,862,112
Percent of
Americans below
the FPL who live
in CA (2019 ACS)
12% 1,360,800 737,026 1,471,405 52% $3,442,942,133 $2,202,862,112
Percent of federal
EITC claimants
nationally who live
in CA
11.2% 1,270,080 687,891 1,520,540 48% $3,592,070,164 $2,351,990,143
Percent of
Americans below
200% FPL who
live in CA
11.7% 1,322,244 716,144 1,492,287 50% $3,506,321,546 $2,266,241,525
50% Non-Filers
Tool take-up
assumption
12% 1,360,800 737,026 1,471,405 50% $3,514,033,800 $2,273,953,779
* All estimates adjust the volume of Non-Filers Tool returns by approximately 54%: the volume of CDSS enrollments relative to Medi-Cal enrollments over a year long period.
** The non-lers tool closed before the second and third round of stimulus payments, so the denominator of the take-up rate is 1.4 million: the adults and children who
qualied for but missed out on the rst round of payments.
*** Adjusts volume of federal-only lers by 54%: the volume of CDSS enrollments relative to Medi-Cal enrollments over a year long period.
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Tables
TABLE A2: California safety-net enrollees who received automatic stimulus payments
ADULTS DEPENDENTS* TOTAL
% OF
SAFETY
NET $ DISBURSED
Total eligible, received any payment
automatically
3,620,996 3,439,630 7,060,626 80 18,434,921,100
Filed California state taxes in 2019
(received all eligible payments automatically)
2,041,575 3,113,903 5,155,478 58 13,429,932,500
Filed California state taxes in 2018
(received April 2020 automatically only)
216,494 207,656 424,150 5 435,987,100
Likely received through Social Security,
SSI/SSP
1,362,927 118,071 1,480,998 17 4,569,001,500
Eligible CDSS program participants 5,679,055 3,165,852 8,844,907 100 —
TABLE A3: California safety-net enrollees in the Federal Stimulus Gap
ADULTS DEPENDENTS* TOTAL
% OF
SAFETY
NET $ AT RISK
Total eligible, federal stimulus gap 1,387,819 820,612 2,208,431 25 5,679,862,600
At risk of missing all rounds of payments 1,090,918 336,288 1,427,206 16 4,331,657,600
At risk of missing Dec 2020 and/or
March 2021 payments
296,901 484,324 781,225 9 1,348,205,000
*Includes adult dependents.
Source: Franchise Tax Board Tax Year (TY) 2018 and 2019 data (indicator of tax ling only), Medi-Cal Eligibility Data System (MEDS) les from February 2018
through July 2020.
Note: Table A2: “Filed California state taxes in 2019 (received all eligible payments automatically)” captures any primary ler, secondary ler (on a joint return), or
dependent claimed on a tax return in TY 2019. We estimate these lers received all payments automatically for all three rounds of stimulus. “Filed California state
taxes in 2018 (received April 2020 automatically only)” captures any primary ler, secondary ler (on a joint return), or dependent claimed on a tax return in TY
2018 but not TY 2019. We estimate these lers did not receive the second or third round of stimulus payments. This group is included in both Table A2 and Table
A3, which is why total percentages do not add up to 100%. “Likely received through Social Security, SSI/SSP” includes any CDSS program participant over the
age of 65 at any point from 2018–20, any individual associated with a case that had one enrollee with a MEDS aid code indicating Supplemental Security Income/
State Supplementary Payment receipt or indicating a disability. Table A3: “Total eligible, federal stimulus gap” does not account for use of the IRS Non-Filers Tool.
“At risk of missing Dec 2020 and/or March 2021 payments” includes dependents who became newly eligible for the third round of stimulus as well as adults and
dependents who did not appear on a 2019 tax return, and are at risk for not receiving the second and third rounds of stimulus.
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TABLE A4: Case size and percent of wage earners among eligible adults in federal Stimulus Gap in California
CDSS CASE SIZE
ADULTS IN
STIMULUS GAP
# WITH
NO WAGE
EARNINGS
% WITH
NO WAGE
EARNINGS
% TOTAL OF
STIMULUS GAP
(ADULTS ONLY)
1 person 883,211 515,562 58 64
2 people 197,230 119,780 61 14
3 people 127,919 76,100 59 9
4+ people 179,459 109,802 61 13
To t a l 1,387,819 821,244 59 100
Source: Medi-Cal Eligibility Data System les from February 2018 through July 2020 with matched Employment Development Department quarterly wage data
from February 2018 through June 2020 for adults ages 18 and up with quarterly earnings over $50. For adults who only appeared on a 2018 tax return, 2019 and
2020 earnings were used to determine whether they were an adult with no wage earnings. Data does not include self-employment income.
TABLE A5: Federal Stimulus Gap in California, by safety net program
SAFETY-NET PROGRAM
STIMULUS-
ELIGIBLE
ENROLLEES
ENROLLEES IN
STIMULUS GAP
% IN EACH
PROGRAM IN
STIMULUS GAP
% OF TOTAL
STIMULUS GAP
SNAP only 5,805,691 1,517,303 26 69
SNAP & TANF 1,712,651 508,452 30 23
TANF only 52,000 19,433 37 1
Other safety net programs 1,274,565 163,243 13 7
To t a l 8,844,907 2,208,431 25 100
Source: Medi-Cal Eligibility Data System les from February 2018 through July 2020; SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) and TANF (Temporary
Assistance for Needy Families) longitudinal database les from February 2018 through July 2020.
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TABLE A7: Federal Stimulus Gap in California, by primary language
TABLE A6: Federal Stimulus Gap in California, by race/ethnicity
STIMULUS-
ELIGIBLE
ENROLLEES
ENROLLEES IN
STIMULUS GAP
% IN EACH
RACE/
ETHNICITY IN
STIMULUS GAP
% TOTAL OF
STIMULUS GAP
Alaskan Native or American Indian* 47,165 17,557 37 0.8
Asian** 520,414 56,576 11 2.6
Asian Or Pacic Islander** 122,424 14,038 11 0.6
Black 1,020,986 325,446 32 14.7
Hispanic 3,883,493 923,628 24 41.8
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacic Islander** 24,725 7,597 31 0.3
Other/Unknown 1,295,707 301,227 23 13.6
White 1,929,132 562,234 29 25.5
To t a l 8,844,046 2,208,303 25 100
Source: Medi-Cal Eligibility Data System (MEDS) les from February 2018 through July 2020.
Note: Race/ethnicity variable from MEDS data. This variable combines concepts of race and ethnicity. It is also a combination of self-reporting and social worker
visual identication (applicants are asked to provide their self-identied race/ethnicity, but if they do not mark anything the eligibility worker may enter a value based
on their own visual assessment). In February 2020, the California Department of Social Services (CDSS) issued guidance to limit all reporting on race and ethnicity
to be self-reported. The demographic distribution of race/ethnicity in the CDSS data is comparable with the distribution of California households on food stamps
by race/ethnicity from the American Community Survey (2019). Excludes “two or more” category due to small cell size.
*Our analysis captures individuals in safety-net programs administered by CDSS who identify as American Indian and Alaska Native but do not live on tribal land
and/or earn tribal income. Individuals who earn tribal income are exempt from state tax ling in California and may not appear as having received a payment
automatically in our data. However, among those earners who qualify for safety-net programs, most are also likely eligible for tribal safety-net programs — such as
the Food Distribution Program on Indian Reservations and Tribal TANF — and would not appear in the MEDS data.
**CDSS reports nine ethnicities that are grouped by the US Census into an “Asian” category (Asian Indian, Cambodian, Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, Laotian,
and Vietnamese), and three ethnicities that are grouped by the US Census as “Native Hawaiian and Other Pacic” (Guamanian, Hawaiian, and Samoan). Due to
small cell sizes, we are unable to report each category distinctly, and use the US Census race/ethnicity categories to best capture the distinct take-up rates across
all these categories. CDSS also has a separate, distinct option in the data titled “Asian or Pacic Islander”. We are unable to meaningfully group that category and
choose to report it separately.
STIMULUS-
ELIGIBLE
ENROLLEES
ENROLLEES IN
STIMULUS GAP
% EACH
CATEGORY IN
STIMULUS GAP
% TOTAL OF
STIMULUS GAP
English 6,440,875 1,789,992 28 81
Non-English 2,324,145 416,902 18 19
To t a l 8,765,020 2,206,894 24 100
Source: Medi-Cal Eligibility Data System les from February 2018 through July 2020.
Note: Primary language reported by enrollee. One percent of cases do not have a language specied. Note that a primary language other than English reported by
enrollees does not mean that a household only speaks a non-English language. Non-English languages include: Spanish, American Sign Language, Cantonese, Japanese,
Korean, Tagalog, Mandarin, Cambodian, Armenian, Ilocano, Mien, Hmong, Lao, Turkish, Hebrew, French, Polish, Russian, Portuguese, Italian, Arabic, Samoan, Thai,
Farsi, Vietnamese, and Other language.
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TABLE A8: Federal Stimulus Gap in California, by geography
The California Policy Lab builds better lives through data-driven policy. We are an independent, nonpartisan research institute at the
University of California with sites at the Berkeley and Los Angeles campuses.
This research publication reects the views of the authors and not necessarily the views of our funders, our sta, our advisory board,
the California Department of Social Services, the California Franchise Tax Board, or the Regents of the University of California.
STIMULUS-
ELIGIBLE
ENROLLEES
ENROLLEES
IN STIMULUS
GAP
% IN EACH
REGION IN
STIMULUS
GAP UNCLAIMED ($)
% OF TOTAL
FEDERAL
DOLLARS
UNCLAIMED
Bay-Peninsula 421,275 88,554 21 229,434,900 4
Capital 609,389 152,640 25 399,738,400 7
East Bay 423,240 98,782 23 255,461,600 5
Inland Empire 1,235,453 317,101 26 813,510,300 14
Los Angeles Basin 2,461,975 603,538 25 1,551,009,800 27
Middle Sierra 32,469 9,492 29 25,552,700 <1
North Bay 251,713 66,981 27 175,976,000 3
North Central Coast 160,909 39,935 25 99,022,900 2
North Coast 46,501 15,527 33 43,109,900 1
North State 211,320 61,006 29 163,941,000 3
Orange 502,418 115,784 23 292,032,500 5
San Joaquin Valley and
Associated Counties
1,481,803 371,932 25 950,823,500 17
South Central Coast 126,544 33,248 26 82,920,900 1
Southern Border 710,786 179,570 25 469,865,700 8
Ventura 145,687 34,683 24 87,946,100 2
To t a l 8,821,482 2,188,773 25 5,640,346,200 100
Source: Medi-Cal Eligibility Data System (MEDS) les from February 2018 through July 2020.
Note: Counties are grouped into Regional Planning Units (RPUs) — a regional designation by the Employment Development Department. The county of the
latest month of enrollment is used for analysis. Eight percent of observations in MEDS les did not have a county code; for these observations, we used ZIP code to
assign to county. Remaining observations without county code are < 0.01% of total and are excluded from this table.
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